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The essential issue in determining BF is that for us, BF is the value at which the system slows down. If we have a buffer of size 3 but the system does not slow down unless there are 4 items, then we are looking for the probability that Q > 3 or Q ³ 4, which in either case is r5.
In our modeling assumptions for using Chebyshev's bound, we used the mean arrival rate as an estimate of the queue size. Assuming unit departures (m = 1), this is a safe estimate so long as r < 0.5 (i.e., so long as l < 0.5).
For most cases, we will find that the M/M/1 buffer "full or overflowed" estimate is superior to the Chebyshev bound.
For closed queues, we replace r with ra
EXAMPLE 6.4 BUFFER OVERFLOW 1
Suppose we wish to ensure that the probability of buffer overflow (Q > BF) is less than 7% for queue occupancy of r = 0.5:
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Prob (Q > BF = 2) = (.5)4 = 0.0625.
Note that the above bound is derived for a buffer plus a server, so that BF = 0 means that there is still a server in the system. If an item must enter, say, a pipelined buffer stage before it can proceed, one storage element is regarded as the server, while additional storage elements compose the buffer.
Using this bound in memory systems is limited by the single server requirement; after all, the case of m = 1 memory module is uninteresting!
If, indeed, we had a separate buffer for each module, then we could determine the probability of overflow in any module as:
Prob (Q > BF in any of m buffers)
=
1 - [1 Prob (Q > BF)]m
=
1 - [1 - rBF+2]m.

EXAMPLE 6.5 BUFFER OVERFLOW 2
Let us consider the preceding example for m = 2. Again r = 0.5 and we wish to ensure Prob (Q > BF) ³ 0.07. Instead of BF = 2, let us try BF = 3 (buffer of three entries for each module):
d87111c01013bcda00bb8640fdff6754.gif
rBF+2 = r5 = (0.5)5 = 0.03125
d87111c01013bcda00bb8640fdff6754.gif
Prob (Q > BF in either module) = 1 - [1 r5]2 = 0.062.
The obvious alternative is to pool the buffers into a larger buffer, BFP, that holds requests for all modules, so that:
d87111c01013bcda00bb8640fdff6754.gif
BFP = m BF.

 
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